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POLITICO’s must-read briefing on what's driving the day in Brussels, by Jakob Hanke Vela.
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TIME TO REVIVE THE CAMINO ESPAÑOL: Today, we’ll start with something a little different: A history lesson. In the 16th century, King Philip II of Spain reigned over the world’s first global empire, stretching from Mexico to the Philippines (which to this day bear his name). But at home in Europe, his empire was at risk of disintegrating.
The problem: Philip’s constant challenge was to connect his realms in Europe’s south (the Iberian peninsula) with those in the north (the Spanish Netherlands and parts of Germany) — a logistical nightmare, because between them lay rival France.
Philip created a sophisticated route to circumvent the French, using hundreds of galleons to cross the Mediterranean onto Spanish territories in Italy, then crossing the Alps to reach the lands we now call the Benelux and Germany. The new route came to be known as the Camino Español. Spain used that vital artery for decades to transport troops and silver to the warring north, in an effort to keep the empire united.
The future is history: Today, German, Portuguese and Spanish politicians are working to revive that very same route (compare these maps) to transport something just as vital — natural gas, and in the future, hydrogen — because France is blocking the construction of a pipeline through its own territory.
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The pitch for a north-south pipeline is simple: Germany needs new gas suppliers; Portugal and Spain have them. (On top of a pipeline to Algeria’s gas fields, they have eight LNG terminals, including the EU’s largest, compared to Germany’s zero.) The pipeline would funnel hydrogen (made from abundant solar power in the south) to energy-hungry industries that will need green gas, such as steel mills and chemicals factories.
Are you with us, France? The fastest way to do that is by completing the €3 billion MidCat pipeline that runs from Spain through France, which is almost finished except for a stretch from Barcelona to Carcassonne. But France is blocking the completion of the pipeline, and German and Spanish leaders are growing increasingly frustrated with President Emmanuel Macron.
RAMPING UP PRESSURE: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been pushing hard for the construction of MidCat through France, as are his Spanish and Portuguese colleagues. Politicians and senior officials in Berlin, Lisbon, Madrid and Brussels told POLITICO that finishing MidCat is still their preferred option — but they are working on a Plan B.
Ministers speak: “We see the MidCat pipeline as a solution for the supply both of natural gas, and in the future hydrogen,” Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares told Playbook. Similarly, Portugal’s EU Affairs Secretary Tiago Antunes told Playbook in an interview that the three countries “hope that we’ll be able to convince France that this makes sense. It really is a no brainer.” But he added that if France does not budge, “there are also other alternatives.”
What’s behind French opposition: Macron has blocked the completion of MidCat, arguing earlier this month that he was against building new fossil fuel infrastructure. That’s angering officials in Berlin and Brussels, who say Macron actually opposes the pipeline for much less noble reasons: He doesn’t want competition for French energy exports. It seems that for all his talk of being a European statesman, Macron is acting more like King Henry IV, a monarch notoriously obsessed with re-shoring and mercantilism.
France has its own plans: In the short term, Paris wants to sell gas from its four LNG terminals to Germany, instead of being a transit country for gas from the south, officials in Berlin said. In the longer term, France hopes to sell vast amounts of hydrogen made with nuclear energy, a senior French official told Playbook. (That is, if they manage to fix all their broken nuclear reactors). But a north-south pipeline transporting “green hydrogen” would compete with France’s “nuclear hydrogen.”
Planning the Camino Español 2.0: Officials in Berlin, Lisbon and Madrid said they will build a pipeline with or without French approval. “If France does not evolve in its position … the link to Europe can be done with Italy,” Portugal’s Antunes told Playbook. “So linking directly Spain with Italy, leave Barcelona and arrive in Livorno. This is something that is now being considered and studied.”
Spain’s Albares agreed. While he said he had not given up hope on MidCat, “another possibility is a route via Italy.” Albares’ colleagues at the energy ministry are already working on permits for the alternative route.
Black humor: While building a pipeline through the Mediterranean will certainly be challenging, an official in Berlin joked that Germany had gained a lot of practice building pipelines through the sea with Russia’s Nord Stream.
Get ready for October: All eyes are now on a meeting between Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and Germany’s Scholz, along with their ministers, in the Galician harbor city A Coruña on October 5. “We will have Spanish-German government consultations in October where we also want to continue supporting this pipeline and the interconnections,” Albares said.
The big question: Will Scholz and Sánchez convince Macron, or will they be forced to circumvent France, as King Philip did before them?
Further reading: Read all about the pipeline plans by yours truly and my colleague Hans von der Burchard.
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TIME TO TURN THE SCREWS: Europe is preparing fresh sanctions against Russia, after President Vladimir Putin decided to stage referendums to annex Ukrainian territory, mobilized 300,000 reservists and threatened anyone who’d try to stop him with nuclear weapons on Wednesday.
New ‘confessionals’: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s team will start consulting representatives of EU countries — known in town as “confessionals” — to sound out what capitals are willing to accept for an upcoming sanctions package, four EU diplomats told POLITICO. Brussels will discuss proposals with EU ambassadors as soon as Friday, the diplomats said.
What’s on the table: Diplomats expect a discussion on a plan to cap the price of Russian oil, which is currently being discussed in the G7. The U.S. is pressuring the EU to make progress on an oil price cap before the EU’s ban against Russian oil imports comes into force in December. Other potential measures on the table could be more listings of individuals, a ban on the import on Russian diamonds and other luxury goods.
WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING — SURPRISE PRISONER EXCHANGE: Overnight, Ukraine announced that 215 Ukrainian and foreign citizens have been released by Russia in a prisoner exchange for 55 prisoners — among them, Putin pal Viktor Medvedchuk.
ZELENSKYY AT UNGA: In a hotly anticipated video address to the U.N. General Assembly hours after Russia announced its partial mobilization, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy invoked Fyodor Dostoevsky’s “Crime and Punishment” to call for justice for his country. “A crime has been committed against Ukraine, and we demand just punishment,” Zelenskyy said. “Ukraine demands punishment for trying to steal our territory. Punishment for the murders of thousands of people. Punishment for tortures and humiliations of women and men.” More from UNGA in U.N. Playbook.
ICYMI — WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: Playbook’s own Zoya Sheftalovich has this top analysis of what Putin’s so-called partial mobilization means for Ukraine, Russia and the West.
ITALY’S INDUSTRIAL HEARTLAND GIVE MELONI A CHANCE: Forget Silvio Berlusconi and Matteo Salvini — right-wing business-owners in northern Italy have a new idol: far-right leader Giorgia Meloni, who is in pole position to win the Italian election on Sunday.
Case study: According to recent polls, Meloni is set to win in the northern regions of Lombardy, Veneto and Piedmont — formerly strongholds of Salvini’s League and Berlusconi’s Forza Italia. POLITICO’s Giorgio Leali spoke with small entrepreneurs from the Bergamo area (one of the richest regions in the EU) to understand where their new-found love for Meloni comes from. Business owners are intrigued by Meloni’s promises to cut taxes and red tape and, since neither Berlusconi nor Salvini delivered on that, they’re willing to give Brothers of Italy a go.
What Meloni will do to the EU: Meloni is poised to join like-minded leaders in Poland and Hungary as a spoiler to the EU’s ambitions, write our colleagues Carlo Martuscelli and Jacopo Barigazzi in this big read about the far-right firebrand.
MCKINSEY WARNS OF EU TECH GAP: A new report out today by consulting firm McKinsey warns Europe’s tech lag (when compared to the U.S. or Asia) is becoming a bigger problem for the bloc’s entire economy.
Falling behind: Between 2014 and 2019, large European companies with more than a billion euros in revenue (that’s a sample size of 12,000 firms) spent 40 percent less on R&D, grew their revenues at almost half the pace and were 20 percent less profitable compared with U.S. firms. The report warns that “Europe’s corporate underperformance is largely due to technology-creating industries.”
ELEVEN YEARS AND COUNTING: Today marks 11 years since EU countries vetoed Romania’s and Bulgaria’s application to join the EU’s free travel area, known as the Schengen zone.
Call for plenary discussion: “Keeping Romania and Bulgaria waiting at the door for 11 years without any objective reason is a blemish on the image of the EU,” Socialists and Democrats group chief in the European Parliament Iratxe García told Playbook, adding that both countries objectively “meet all the requirements” to join Schengen. García said she will call for a discussion in October’s plenary.
EU INCHING CLOSER TO A BAN ON FACIAL RECOGNITION: Efforts to outlaw the use of AI cameras to scan and identify people’s faces in public spaces are gaining traction, writes POLITICO’s Clothilde Goujard.
UK RAMPS UP PRESSURE ON EU OVER SCIENCE PROGRAMS: British and EU officials meet today, as London seeks access to European scientific research programs such as Horizon Europe.
Committee for cherry-picking: The meeting of a special committee was called by Britain and is the first step to arbitration. U.K. officials say they are losing patience with the EU for not honoring the letter and spirit of the Brexit agreement, under which Britain would get access to such programs. “We’ve made every effort over the last 18 months to get the EU to finalize U.K. access to EU research programs, as was agreed under the terms of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement,” a U.K. government official said.
With or without you: “Time is running out to give clarity to the U.K.’s R&D sector. If progress cannot be made shortly the U.K. will set out ambitious alternative domestic arrangements,” the official added.
Now read this: POLITICO’s Esther Webber has written about new British Prime Minister Liz Truss’ first international trip and her “hyperactive” engagement with foreign policy after tailing the PM in New York.
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— U.N. General Assembly continues in New York. EEAS chief Josep Borrell speaks at 5:15 p.m. … Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at 6 p.m. Watch. Program. Subscribe to POLITICO’s U.N. Playbook.
— Extraordinary informal meeting of foreign affairs ministers in New York, followed by press conference by Josep Borrell.
— Bilateral meeting between von der Leyen and Prime Minister of Pakistan Shehbaz Sharif in New York … von der Leyen also delivers a keynote address at Princeton University.
— Informal meeting of consumer protection ministers in Prague.
— European Economic and Social Committee 572th plenary session, with input from EESC boss Christa Schweng and Commission Vice President Margaritis Schinas. Agenda. Watch.
THE SINGULAR CAREER OF MAURO PETRICCIONE: He was barely known outside Brussels, but in town, he was known as a man who could make things happen. The director general of the EU’s climate change division, known to most as Mauro, died suddenly last month from a heart attack, aged 65.
True European: “He had one of the superlative EU careers, marked in its final decade by a rapid-fire set of historic achievements: cinching three vital EU free-trade agreements, designing its Climate Law and crafting the European Green Deal,” Karl Mathiesen and Paola Tamma write. He was also, by every account, a true “European,” from the tradition of Altiero Spinelli, an EU founding father, who saw unification as a bulwark for peace and prosperity on a Continent historically torn by wars. Read the obituary here.
SOUNDTRACK TO THE PRESIDENCY: The Czech EU presidency laid on a splendid evening of classical music at the opulent BOZAR concert hall on Wednesday night, Eddy Wax writes in to report.
Musical motto: The Prague Philharmonia orchestra, conducted by Jan Kučera, played a stirring new piece called “Stronger Than Yesterday,” composed by Czech pianist Tomáš Kačo, as well as music by the great national composer Antonín Dvořák.
Moravian rhapsody: The undisputed star of the evening was pianist Lukáš Vondráček, who gave an enigmatic performance of a Beethoven piano concerto. The presidency is now almost halfway through but its calendar of cultural events in Brussels is worth at look.
BIRTHDAYS: MEP Estrella Durá Ferrandis; Former MEPs Michael Heaver and Csanád Szegedi; French politician Ségolène Royal; Intel’s Sophie Jacobs; International Committee of the Red Cross’ Chadi Sidhom; Boeing’s Agnès Leroux; HM Revenue & Customs’s Matthew Sabourin; M&G Investments’ Alexandra Ranson; Minister Counsellor at the Permanent Representation of Finland to the European Union Anton Nilsson.
THANKS to Giorgio Leali, Barbara Moens, Jacopo Barigazzi, Eddy Wax and producer Grace Stranger.
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